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July 27, 2009
What is “Cloud Computing” and What is the Future Valuation?
How *do* you define “cloud computing? Interesting article that examines how different research organizations are defining the term.
Gartner says:
a style of computing where scalable and elastic IT capabilities are provided as a service to multiple customers using Internet technologies
While a UC Berkeley paper offers:
Cloud Computing refers to both the applications delivered as services over the Internet and the hardware and systems software in the data centers that provide those services. The services themselves have long been referred to as Software as a Service (SaaS), so we use that term. The data-center hardware and software is what we will call a Cloud. When a Cloud is made available in a pay-as-you-go manner to the public, we call it a Public Cloud; the service being sold is Utility Computing
People in the industry don’t necessarily agree with such a broad view of the cloud:
If I define the cloud the way Gartner does, I could conceivably consider any Internet-delivered service as a cloud service," Treadway said. "That's not a helpful definition from the standpoint of the massive shift that's going to happen over the next 10 years in computing architecture. Gartner is diluting the term and making its figures irrelevant. Other experts don't defend Gartner's definition. Gartner is at odds with the industry
Gartner forecasts the cloud computing valuation at:
- $46b in 2008
- $150b in 2013
While IDC says the cloud will be worth:
- $42b in 2012
Merrill Lynch says it will be:
- $160b by 2011
My take: really hard to say (how’s that for helpful?)
As an entrepreneur, “cloud computing” really equates to utility/on-demand computing. The ability to provision virtual instances on the fly and scale as demand/traffic requires. Throwing out the old physical data center model and all the fixed costs that go with it, including hardware depreciation.
As a user though, it is really about the applications I use on a regular basis that exist in “the cloud”. Things like gDocs, Mint, Twitter, Facebook (and of course, Backpack).
In the end I suspect that the larger view will be used, if only because it makes the overall (revenue) numbers so much larger. Like anything, the potential will be overvalued in the near-term and undervalued in the long-term. Kinda like the web was back in the Web 1.0 days.
Now, who is going to acquire Amazon (AMZN) for their AWS technology??
Posted by davehod at 04:40 PM | Comments (0)
Rave Run – Strawberry, CA
I spent last week in Strawberry, CA. In preparation for the start of training for the San Antonio Rock and Roll Marathon, we made sure to get in as many runs as possible during our stay.
Having run around Pinecrest Lake on previous trips, I became determined to figure out how to run from Strawberry, up to the dam, around the lake and back. We asked around, looked at topo maps, etc. The Forest Service wasn’t much help – the trail head was about a mile from their office, but they didn’t know anything about the place. Talking to some locals helped; we were able to at least find the trail head.
Our first attempt was pretty much a disaster. We missed the initial turn and ran to the end of a logging road. While trying to figure out where to go next, an employee of the local water company drove up. He hadn’t ever been on the trail either (??!!) but called his office and told us we were in the wrong place. We went back down to the highway and up another trail that he assured us “went right to the base of the dam”. While it is possible that the trail did indeed get there 100 years ago, we spent a lot of time trying to find the trail as it went missing every couple of hundred yards. (Not naming names, but one of the people in the group was carrying a sharp stick and was sure we were going to be attacked by a mountain lion or possibly a bear at every turn) After quite a bit of cross-country hiking/running, we crossed the river and found the trail. We made it to the top of the dam and promptly turned around as we had blown through our allotted running time.
The second attempt was a success! We found the trail and had a great run. Our course was as follows:
- Drive to start: Hwy 108, turn at the Strawberry Inn. Follow the road (Herring Creek) until it dead-ends.
- Run approximately .25 miles, turning right at the first fork. Make sure to pay close attention as this is very easy to miss.
- Cross the creek (Herring Creek) next to the washed-out cement bridge.
- Look closely for the trail, and follow it to the base of the dam. Note the signs 20 feet off the ground that say something like “Listen for horns. If heard, immediately seek higher ground as there is a water release from the dam”. Not sure how high you need to climb if the horn blows (~1 mile)
- Head up the switchbacks to the dam. At the top, go left (yes, up more) and run counter-clockwise around the lake (~4 miles). Note that some stretches are tough to navigate; watch for sprained ankles.
- If desired, head over to the store and refuel when you get to the docks.
- Follow the trail over the dam and back down through the valley to the start. (~1 mile)
- As an add-on, you can continue on Old Strawberry Road (as shown below)
Run Summary:
Start: Herring Creek Road, behind Strawberry Inn
Distance: 6.2 miles
Altitude: 5124 feet (min), 5933 feet (max)
Course: Very scenic, varying conditions
Support: No water, store at ~4.5 miles
Special Note: Listen for the horn!
The map from my Garmin is below:
Posted by davehod at 04:16 PM | Comments (0)
July 14, 2009
Legalities of the Cloud
I finally finished “Cloud Application Architectures” (the Tour de France has been a real distraction of late – go Lance!), which is a great overview of cloud computing in general and utilizing AWS specifically.
One issue the author George Reese raises in the book concerns potential legal issues/concerns when your bits are cloud-based. For example, your virtual host is running on the same physical machine as another company. That company turns out to be under investigation for some shady dealings. Law enforcement officials in turn confiscate the physical hardware to prosecute the offenders, thereby taking your site down, along with your bits, including customer data. There are a number of other examples in the book, along with suggested ways to keep your data safe (encrypted file systems, etc)
When reading the book, I thought some of these ideas might be a bit outlandish. Until I read an article on CNet today, entitled “Lawyers shine light on real cloud concerns”. James Urquhart covers some of the same ground as George Reese, while adding in some additional topics/questions like this post from an employment law attorney:
From an employment law perspective, I have not seen much, if anything on the subject. For example, Connecticut's wage and hour laws require employers to keep track of various records of the employee including hours worked, etc. The catch? Such records need to be kept at the employer's place of business for three years. Does storing the information in "the cloud" satisfy that?
Good food for thought; obviously the legal system won’t catch up to the realities of the cloud for quite some time so it pays to delve into something you might not look into normally when deploying a physical production instance at a data center.
Posted by davehod at 03:56 PM | Comments (0)
July 07, 2009
Lance Armstrong Rocks
The Tour De France started on 7/4 – not sure if you are watching it, but already it has been great. The “old guy” Lance Armstrong is attempting a comeback and if Stage 3 is anything like the rest of the race, he just might do it.
Great tweet from him this morning, probably made the guys in Iron Maiden smile.
Posted by davehod at 07:53 AM | Comments (0)